Nassim Nicholas Taleb  (The Black Swan)

About Financial analysts, economists, forecasters all of kind, and the reliability of their previsions, of their working methods.

In these times of uncertainty, a great time to read this good book on unexpected events.

«There are those people who produce forecasts uncritically. When asked why they forecast, they answer, «Well, that’s what we’re paid to do here.»

My suggestion : get another job.

This suggestion is not too demanding: unless you are a slave, I assume you have some amount of control over your job selection. Otherwise this becomes a problem of ethics, and a grave one at that.

People who are trapped in their jobs who forecast simply because « That’s my job », knowing pretty well that their forecast is ineffectual, are not what I would call ethical. What they do is no different from repeating lies simply because « it’s my job».

Anyone who causes harm by forecasting should be treated as either a fool or a liar. Some forecasters cause more damage to society than criminals. Please, don’t drive a school bus blindfolded. »